^{Will Sun Soon Set on U.S. Troops
in Iraq? (photo taken in Taji, Iraq,
by Iraq War veteran Aubrey Arcangel)}

The somber news that 4,000 Americans (8 civilians and the remainder military) have died in Iraq as of March 2008 has pushed the already polarized sides in the debate of Iraq troop withdrawals even further apart. They have provoked more urgent calls for a troop withdrawal and end to the war among the war's substantial opposition.

Such an end is unlikely to come very soon. In late March, President Bush was reported to be considering a 'pause' in the ongoing drawdown of some troops to pre-surge levels. The current reductions will bring troop level to 140,000 in July. The military has recommended that the president permit an assessment of the situation before any further withdrawals. The constraints on the president's decision making are a good reminder of how many factors are at play in deciding troop levels.

I first wrote about Iraq troop withdrawals just before the 2006 Congressional elections. At the time, it was widely believed that a shift from Republican to a Democratic Congress would effect a serious change in the trajectory of the war (or end it). At that time, I laid out a number of factors that would limit a Congress of either party to determine US troop levels in Iraq.

Americans' keen desire to affect the Iraq War and U.S. troop levels had galvanized opinions and made the 2006 Congressional elections among the few to turn on a foreign policy issue. Polls at the end of October consistently showed that Iraq has trumped every other issue, including terrorism and the economy, as a key voting factor.

The factors were:

• The executive branch has a say
• The need for bilateral decision-making
• What politicians say is not necessarily what they will do, for many reasons
• The needs and goals of the U.S. military
• Whether Iraqi troops are prepared, and
• Iraq's vote matters

When I first contemplated these constraints, I didn't necessarily believe they would endure as long as they have. And yet, when I returned to them in March 2007, just as Congress began voting on withdrawal timetables, they had remained relevant.

A year later, they still appear relevant. Below you'll find updates on each of the original six factors, and how they matter today. The larger point, at this juncture, is that Congressional will--even when backed by a popular mandate--is restricted by other factors.

To a lesser extent, there are also factors that limit presidential will. This is worth thinking about as Americans head into another election, this time for president. It matters a great deal what Clinton, Obama and McCain (the three possible contenders as of this writing) want. But as their platforms become more detailed, we might also ask that they begin explaining how they will deal with other stakeholders in the Iraq war: the US military, Congress, and--not least--Iraqis themselves. Iraqi civilian fatalities are approaching 90,000 civilians, according to the estimate of Iraq Body Count. read more …