A Great Game for the 21st Century

U.S. Could Win More than War on Terrorism in Central Asia

While many of us are focused on the U.S. troop build up in Afghanistan and the Taliban and Al Qaeda presence, there is a more substantial geostrategic game afoot, according to a former Indian career diplomat, M K Bhadrakumar.

Bhadrakumar's basic argument is that the Afghanistan war and the global war on terrorism in whose name it is being fought may help the U.S. establish an enduring presence in the region, while repelling Russia, Iran, China and potentially India from expanding their power.

Both Russia and Iran would like to expand their power in the region. One way to expand their say in the regional future would be by being able to leverage cooperation with the United States in Afghanistan to their advantage. Both countries, as well as China, offer potential supply routes to Afghanistan. The United States may need new supply routes, if protests and attacks on Pakistan routes continue.

Bhadrakumar opines that, according to the currently available evidence, the United States may trump all three by opening a line at Georgia's Poti port. This route would go through Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to arrive at Afghanistan's northern border. Several political gains could be achieved, including bypassing Russia and potentially offering a "Caspian oil and gas corridor" the U.S could exploit.

In Bhadrakumar's reading of the geopolitical tea leaves, the U.S. may be losing the war on terror, but it may win something much bigger, if the U.S. continues its presence in Afghanistan.

Surely, the renewed Taliban threat in Afghanistan and the escalation of combat is providing a fantastic backdrop. For the first time, the US would be establishing a military presence in the Caucasus and the distinct possibility emerges for a Caspian energy corridor leading to the European market. Both Russia and Iran will feel directly threatened by the US military presence virtually in their border regions, and both would feel outplayed by Washington in the Caspian energy sweepstakes.

These maneuverings over the supply routes bring out the full range of the bitterly fought geopolitical struggle in the Hindu Kush, which mostly lies hidden from the world opinion that remains focused on the fate of al-Qaeda and Taliban. The fact is, seven years down the road from the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, the US has done exceedingly well in geopolitical terms, even if the war as such may have gone rather badly both for the Afghans and the Pakistanis and the European soldiers serving in Afghanistan.