The new videotape released by Al Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman Al Zawahiri on December 20 may shed more light on a bombing in Chingai in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province on October 30. Zawahiri was the intended target of the attack, which was carried out by the United States (rather than by Pakistan, as was first claimed). Most observers doubted that Zawahiri had been killed in the attack, but the lack of an immediate Al Qaeda response to the bombing suggested to others that he had.
An analysis put out by Strategic Forecasting Inc. Zawahiri's December 20 videotape—addressing the U.S. presence in Iraq, Palestinina politics and other topics—suggests that the video's release by Al Jazeera may mean that Al Qaeda's own production facilities were damaged in the October bombing:
[Zawahiri's] statement was unusual in that it was released by Al Jazeera rather than by al Qaeda's As-Sahab media production house -- although As-Sahab posted banner ads on jihadist Web sites and in jihadist chat rooms Dec. 18 announcing the impending release of the video. . . .It is possible that the Oct. 30 airstrike on a seminary believed to be harboring prominent al Qaeda members in the village of Chingai, in Pakistan's Bajaur agency, took out a critical element or elements of As-Sahab, necessitating a return to using Al Jazeera as al Qaeda's media outlet. It is also possible that As-Sahab's Internet distribution method has been compromised by some intelligence, or by technical means, rendering it too risky to use. . . .
That it took al Qaeda so long to provide proof of life after the Chingai strike, and that al Qaeda released the latest video using uncharacteristic means, indicates that the group's media distribution network could have taken a serious hit at Chingai.
The damage to Al Sahab, if Stratfor's analysis is correct, could be considered a small feather in the cap of the Bush Administration, which is deeply concerned about the American failure to combat Al Qaeda and Taliban communications or propaganda with persuasive American messages.
Just as certainly, strategically taking out enemy communications infrastructure by bombing is no way to win this particular information war. Media is global; there are many routes to distribute information. When one is taken out, another will always be found. And bombings like the October 30 hit feed anti-American sentiment, especially when they kill civilians (which is also a humanitarian issue). That sentiment is easily mobilized by exactly the groups and leaders the U.S. is trying to curb or eliminate.
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