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Iran Nuclear Issue- -Will More Sanctions Produce Iran Nuclear Cooperation?

From Amy Zalman, Ph.D., for About.com

Sanctions Are the Only Option

A long term solution is appropriate since Iran does not have nuclear weapons capability now. There is time for the full measure of sanctions’ effect to unfold.

Sanctions are better than alternatives: The alternatives to economic sanctions -- inaction, military action, direct diplomacy, or sweeter incentives are unpalatable. Incentives have not proven successful.

Military actions should be avoided at all costs, making sanctions more appealing:The United States would be hard pressed to carry out any form of military action without damaging repercussions at home and abroad. It has no popular backing in the U.S. (as of September, 2008, only 10% of American adults thought Iran currently poses a threat requiring military action).

The destabilizing potential of the attacks remains uncalculated. National security expert Anthony Cordesman said in September 2008 that striking all of Iran’s nuclear sites would not be easy and the attacks would be like “a chainsaw more than a scalpel.”

More Sanctions Won't Work

Historically, sanctions are a bad policy tool. Based on their analysis of the historical evidence, some experts conclude that sanctions work under any circumstances. As Jacob Weisberg has explained , sanctions imposed on isolated regimes actually tend to backfire. Economic deprivation leads people to blame the immediate cause of their suffering [sanctions], not their regime’s behavior.

Sanctions increase isolation, which makes it “easier for dictators to blame external enemies for a country's suffering. And because sanctions make a country's material deprivation significantly worse, they paradoxically make it less likely that the oppressed will throw off their chains.”

Iran’s oil supply permits it to circumvent sanctions: Iran is one of the largest producers of oil in the world. As long as supply remains tight, and prices remain high, Iran is in a good position to leverage its output. Jeffrey J. Schott, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics argued before Congress in 2006 that if Iran decides to curtail shipments, it could cause oil prices to rise, and thus “sell less…and earn more.”

Unintended effects of sanctions should be fully reviewed before further action

Sanctions may reverberate in ways that have not been fully accounted for yet, both within and beyond Iran. First, economic sanctions historically have had detrimental effects on the populations of sanctioned countries, which is both cruel in humanitarian terms and may serve to radicalize populations against sanctioning countries. Second, there is some evidence to suggest that sanctions may strengthen, rather than weaken, Ahmedenijad's hand at home.

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